USA Meats Intelligence
Monday Morning USA Meats Intelligence Report: Issue #5
Bone-in ham early: train the knives, don't just sell $0.69. Choice slips to $363, pork cutout falls a fifth week, and frozen turkey eases into Thanksgiving.
Issue #5 · Monday, November 9, 2026 · Market week of Nov 2–6
Good morning. One read on beef, pork, chicken and seafood, what the supermarket ads ran, what to book before Thanksgiving — and this week's feature: bone-in ham, early.
This week's feature: Bone-in ham — train the knives early
Anyone can sell hams at $0.69 and make no money. We are training the knives to achieve a lot of value with this versatile cut.
Start now — not the week of Thanksgiving — so the cut wall and the crew build momentum. A whole bone-in ham (pierna / jamón con hueso) is a traffic item and a fabrication platform. The same green ham that rings cheap as a whole can become:
- Bone-in wall: whole with skin, half, bone-in sliced, shank / chamorro, hock / codillo, bones for beans
- Boneless wall: roast / maciza, steaks and milanesa, stew / sancocho / pozole / tamale chunks, fajita strips, taquero dice, shredded for tortas
- Seasoned wall: adobada, enchilada, pibil, carnitas-cut cubes
Every knife cut is a different shopper and a different ticket. The stores that only put a whole ham on a deep ad leave the rest of the value on the table. The stores that train the knives early walk into the holidays with a full pierna case, practiced butchers, and a story beyond "$0.69."
Public market context (not a quote): Ham stocks in freezers were +28% YoY at the end of September (NASS Cold Storage). The USDA pork carcass composite is soft again (see §1). Thanksgiving is Thu Nov 26 — about 2½ weeks.
Full teaching walkthrough — traffic ad vs. knife wall — is in §5 Meat Math. Live pork board: usameats.com/#pork-prices · Request a pallet.
The 30-second version
- Feature: Bone-in ham early — train the knives; don't only sell the $0.69 whole.
- Beef: Choice averaged $363.02/cwt (−$5.50 on the week, −$14.87 / −3.9% on the year). Friday closed at $360.79. The Choice/Select spread collapsed to $7.85 (from $13.47).
- Pork: weekly composite carcass cutout $70.73/cwt, down $1.30 (−1.8%) on the week and $28.17 (−28.5%) on the year — a fifth straight weekly decline.
- Chicken: boneless breast eased 1.5¢ to about 110¢/lb. Boneless thighs held near 170¢. Thigh-over-breast gap about 60¢/lb. Drumsticks ~56¢.
- Turkey: frozen hens eased 6¢ to a 181¢ weighted average; frozen toms held near 189¢. Fresh whole hens quoted this week at 184¢. Fresh tom breast B/S jumped to 308¢ (+18¢).
- Seafood: raw-shrimp ad median rose to $7.99/lb (8 banners). Still no free weekly wholesale shrimp benchmark.
- Ads: 21 Hispanic/independent banners, 554 per-lb prices. Deli ham still wide (16 banners); pork al pastor up to 9 banners; leg quarters at 10.
- Institutional: Nogales cattle port still scheduled Nov 30. HPAI hit a commercial turkey flock in Beadle County, S.D. (~54,100 birds, Nov 4). Cold Storage next release Nov 24. WASDE Tue Nov 10.
1. Last Week's Market
All USDA wholesale values are FOB plant, in $ per hundredweight (cwt = 100 lb) unless noted. Divide by 100 for $/lb: $363.02/cwt = $3.63/lb. These are USDA market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Live boards: usameats.com.
Beef: Choice keeps slipping, the spread collapses
Takeaway: Choice gave back about 5½¢/lb on the week and is almost 4% below a year ago. Select held flat, so the Choice/Select spread narrowed sharply from $13.47 to $7.85. Loin (−$11.14) and chuck (−$10.40) led the primals lower; the rib edged up again (+$0.91) and plate rose. Loads were slightly higher on the week but still about 15% below last year. Beef offers: Today’s deals.
| USDA boxed beef cutout (LM_XB403) | Week avg Nov 2–6 | Prior week avg Oct 26–30 | Chg | Same week 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choice cutout (600–900 lb) | $363.02 | $368.52 | −$5.50 | $377.89 | −$14.87 (−3.9%) |
| Select cutout | $355.17 | $355.05 | +$0.12 | $360.66 | −$5.49 (−1.5%) |
| Choice/Select spread | $7.85 | $13.47 | −$5.62 | $17.23 | −$9.38 |
| Choice + Select loads (week) | 427.0 | 419.8 | +1.7% | 502.9 | −15.1% |
Daily Choice / Select (closes): Mon $365.04 / $354.94 · Tue $365.23 / $358.37 · Wed $362.50 / $356.65 · Thu $361.56 / $352.32 · Fri $360.79 / $353.56 (Friday's Choice close was the low of the week).
ChoiceSelect
Choice primals (weekly average):
| Primal | Week avg | WoW | YoY | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rib | $676.84 | +$0.91 | +7.9% | Still the holiday firm primal |
| Chuck | $318.79 | −$10.40 | +3.5% | Softest $ drop of the week |
| Round | $288.97 | −$0.14 | −11.1% | Quiet; still cheap vs. 2025 |
| Loin | $437.82 | −$11.14 | −9.4% | Strip and short loin led it lower |
| Brisket | $266.38 | −$4.59 | −16.7% | Soft for a third week |
| Short plate | $219.87 | +$2.10 | −10.2% | Small bounce |
| Flank | $151.08 | −$1.28 | −24.6% | Still the cheapest vs. last year |
Movers: Choice subprimals, weekly volume-weighted average (items with ≥150,000 lb traded in both weeks):
| Cut (IMPS) | Week wtd avg | WoW | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⬇ Short loin, 0x1 (174) | $756.05 | −$63.42 (−7.7%) | −5.5% | Biggest % drop |
| ⬇ Ball tip, boneless heavy (185B) | $492.59 | −$39.56 (−7.4%) | +18.0% | |
| ⬇ Strip loin, 0x1 (180) | $864.96 | −$43.96 (−4.8%) | −11.2% | 1.27 million lb |
| ⬇ Chuck roll (116A) | $552.57 | −$21.51 (−3.7%) | +21.9% | Softer week, still dear vs. 2025 |
| ⬇ Outside round (171B) | $361.63 | −$8.65 (−2.3%) | −8.7% | |
| ⬇ Flank steak (193) | $578.82 | −$12.60 (−2.1%) | −24.0% | |
| ⬇ Chuck tender (116B) | $392.25 | −$6.68 (−1.7%) | −11.8% | |
| ⬇ Brisket, deckle-off (120) | $377.28 | −$5.40 (−1.4%) | −16.4% | 1.42 million lb |
| ➡ Export rib (109E) | $1,386.34 | flat | +9.7% | Holiday rib holding |
| ➡ Shoulder clod (114A) | $415.91 | flat | +8.8% | |
| ⬆ Chuck short rib (130) | $591.76 | +$5.88 (+1.0%) | +17.4% | |
| ⬆ Ribeye, lip-on heavy (112A) | $1,598.30 | +$35.78 (+2.3%) | +16.0% | Biggest $ gain |
| ⬆ Knuckle, peeled (167A) | $392.78 | +$9.15 (+2.4%) | −19.7% | |
| ⬆ Short plate short rib (123A) | $704.63 | +$23.34 (+3.4%) | +26.9% |
Grinds and trim (weekly wtd avg): 81% ground beef $319.28 (−$4.88 WoW, −11.3% YoY) · 73% $247.69 (−$9.88 WoW, −27.1% YoY) · 85% $402.68 (−$5.75) · 93% $505.25 (−$3.01) · ground chuck $359.32 (−$18.42) · fresh 50% lean trim $86.62 (+$2.96 WoW, −49.3% YoY).
Cattle (LM_CT150, week ending Mon Nov 2)
Confirmed head 61,441 (prior week's thin corrected sample was 19,930; year ago 48,293). Live FOB steer $223.73 (−$3.35 WoW, −$7.13 YoY); dressed delivered steer $352.19. Sample size is back to a more normal week after last week's packer-submission correction.
Pork: fifth straight weekly decline on the carcass composite
Publication rule: completed-week carcass composite only (WoW and YoY). No daily pork $/cwt and no pork primal values in this report.
| USDA pork carcass (LM_PK602, 5-day avg) | Completed week Nov 2–6 | Prior completed week | Chg | Same week 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carcass cutout | $70.73 | $72.03 | −$1.30 (−1.8%) | $98.90 | −$28.17 (−28.5%) |
Cross-check: Fri 11/6 five-day carcass $70.73 matches the Datamart API and AMS 2498 PDF. Soft wholesale pork is the backdrop for the bone-in ham feature in §5 — traffic pricing is easy; knife work is the differentiator. → Pork board
Chicken (AMS 3646, Nov 2–6)
| Item | Wtd avg ¢/lb | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boneless breast | 110.34 | −1.46 | Eased again |
| Boneless thighs | 170.41 | −0.05 | Flat; gap over breast 60.07¢ |
| Tenderloins | 112.64 | −1.40 | |
| Wings, whole | 106.97 | −0.13 | |
| Drumsticks | 56.38 | +0.74 | Still a 99¢ ad item |
| Leg quarters, bulk | 53.19 | −0.53 | |
| Chicago whole body | 98.73 | +0.19 |
Turkey (AMS 3647, Nov 2–6)
Frozen hens 181.00¢ (177–185), −6.0¢ from last week's 187¢. Frozen toms 189.33¢ (+0.83). Fresh whole hens quoted this week at 183.82¢ (179–192) — that line was missing last week. Fresh tom breast B/S 308.00¢ (+18.40). About 2½ weeks to Thanksgiving; bird flu remains a watch item (see §4).
Seafood
No free weekly U.S. wholesale shrimp benchmark (stated gap). Retail shrimp ads: Hispanic/independent raw-shrimp median $7.99 (8 banners, up from $6.84); mainstream raw-shrimp median also $7.99. → Seafood board
2. Supermarket Ads Recap (2026-W45: Nov 4–10)
Anonymized Midwest Hispanic/independent + mainstream aggregate. Retail ad $/lb only; no store names.
Hispanic / independent: 21 banners, 554 per-lb prices, 50 items (prior week 26 / 657 on the comparable basis).
| Highlight | Banners | Median | P25 | Low | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pork al pastor | 9 | $3.49 | $2.99 | $1.99 | more banners (was 6) |
| Pork butt / shoulder | 6 | $1.99 | $1.99 | $1.99 | more banners |
| Pork ribs | 11 | $2.99 | $2.79 | $1.88 | fewer (was 17) |
| Pork chops | 11 | $2.48 | $1.99 | $1.68 | fewer |
| Chicken drumsticks | 11 | $0.99 | $0.89 | $0.69 | flat median |
| Chicken leg quarters | 10 | $0.99 | $0.99 | $0.68 | more (was 5) |
| Boneless breast | 11 | $1.99 | $1.79 | $1.19 | median −$0.10 |
| Boneless thighs | 6 | $2.59 | $2.19 | $2.18 | median −$0.40 |
| Whole chicken | 6 | $1.89 | $1.69 | $1.69 | median +$0.35 |
| Skirt (inside) | 6 | $8.99 | $8.99 | $8.99 | |
| Chuck roast/steak | 7 | $7.49 | $5.99 | $4.98 | median +$1.00 |
| Ground chuck | 5 | $5.49 | $4.99 | $3.99 | |
| Raw shrimp (all) | 8 | $7.99 | $5.99 | $4.98 | median +$1.15 |
| Ribeye | 3 | $8.99 | $8.98 | $8.98 |
Mainstream grocers: 11 companies, 108 per-lb prices, 10 items. Boneless breast median $3.99 (was $1.99), deli ham $9.99 (was $6.99), chuck $6.99, strip $10.99 (was $14.99), raw shrimp $7.99, pork ribs $3.49.
Wholesale-to-ad check (public only): USDA boneless breast ~$1.10/lb FOB vs Hispanic/independent ad median $1.99. Drumsticks ~$0.56 FOB vs $0.99 ad median. Boneless thighs ~$1.70 FOB vs $2.59 ad median.
3. Buying Opportunities: what's soft now and what to book ahead
Market context, not a quote. For delivered pricing: live boards · Request a pallet.
Soft now: worth featuring
- Bone-in ham fabrication. Soft pork carcass + deep ham ads = the week to train knives and fill the pierna wall (see feature + §5). → Pork board
- Loin and chuck subprimals. Short loin and strip led Choice lower; chuck roll eased but is still +22% YoY — price chuck ads with yield math. → Today’s deals
- Brisket, flank, round. Still the soft YoY primals. → Today’s deals
- 73% ground and 50s. 73% −27% YoY; fresh 50s still about −49% YoY. → Trim & Grind
- Chicken breast and drums. Breast ~$1.10 FOB; drums still a 99¢ ad. → Poultry
Book ahead
- Rib / prime rib. Rib primal +7.9% YoY; lip-on ribeye +16% YoY this week. Lock holiday rib.
- Turkey. Frozen hens eased but HPAI is active again (S.D.). Finalize counts — Thanksgiving Nov 26.
- Nogales cattle (Nov 30) and holiday seafood (Ash Wednesday Feb 10, 2027). → Holiday calendar · Seafood
Do the delivered math: → Landed-cost calculator · Request a pallet.
4. Industry & Institutional News
Cattle and the border
- USDA APHIS still lists Nogales, Arizona for cattle imports from Mexico on Nov 30, if conditions hold. Columbus, N.M. reopened Oct 26; Douglas and Santa Teresa earlier (USDA APHIS / Screwworm.gov, status page updated Nov 6).
- Arizona's New World screwworm case (Cochise County dog, Oct 28) has not changed the published Nogales date as of the latest status page.
Bird flu
- APHIS confirmed HPAI on Nov 4 in a commercial turkey meat flock of about 54,100 birds in Beadle County, South Dakota (APHIS detections list). Turkey supply into Thanksgiving remains the watch item after October cases in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Cold Storage / outlook
- No new Cold Storage this week. Sep 30 ham stocks (+28% YoY) still the latest figure; next NASS Cold Storage Tue Nov 24.
- WASDE: Tue Nov 10. ERS Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook: Tue Nov 17.
Plant capacity
- Midwest beef capacity watch continues (prior Tyson Joslin / Eagle Mountain and JBS Souderton case-ready notes from Issue #4). Fewer cattle and less capacity still support firm rib and chuck vs. the soft loin.
5. Meat Math: Bone-In Ham — Train the Knives Early
Every Monday, one number that helps you buy smarter. Issue #4 closed with the holiday case. This week we follow the owner's call: lean into bone-in ham early, and put the knives to work.
All purchase prices, pounds, yields, shrink and margins below are a hypothetical example for teaching. They are not USA Meats prices and not any real store's results.
The point
Anyone can sell hams at $0.69 and make no money. Training the knives is how you get value from this versatile cut. Start the pierna / jamón wall now so by Thanksgiving week the crew is sharp and the case is full — not improvising on Wednesday afternoon.
Step 1: One green ham, many tickets
A hypothetical back room takes 1,200 lb of whole bone-in hams at a teaching purchase of $0.95/lb (illustrative only) and breaks them across a Latino value-add wall:
| Cut idea (hypothetical) | Share of lb | Saleable lb (after yield/shrink) | Required retail $/lb (teaching) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole BI (traffic / pierna entera) | 25% | 297.0 | $1.01 |
| Bone-in half / sliced BI | 15% | 172.9 | $1.24 |
| Boneless roast / maciza | 12% | 115.7 | $1.64 |
| Steaks / milanesa | 10% | 94.1 | $1.73 |
| Stew / sancocho / pozole / tamale | 12% | 110.1 | $1.73 |
| Shank / chamorro / hock | 8% | 89.4 | $1.31 |
| Fajita / taquero / shredded | 10% | 91.7 | $1.83 |
| Bones for beans + skin | 8% | 96.0 | $1.58 |
| Wall total | 100% | 1,066.9 | blended teaching margin 23.65% |
Cut names worth posting next to the whole ham (Spanish first is fine): pierna entera, pierna media, rebanada con hueso, deshuesada / maciza, bistec / milanesa, trozos para guisado / sancocho / pozole / tamales, chamorro / codillo, fajita / corte taquero / desmenuzada, hueso para frijoles, and seasoned adobada / enchilada / pibil / carnitas-cut.
Step 2: Whole-only at $0.69 vs. traffic + knives
- Whole-only: sell every pound as whole at a $0.69 traffic ad → about $820 retail on $1,140 cost in this teaching example (a clear loss). That is the "anyone can sell hams at $0.69" path.
- Traffic + knives: keep ~25% as the $0.69 whole for the ad, and price the rest of the knife wall to the teaching plan → about $1,400 total retail in the same example — roughly $580 more revenue than whole-only, before you even talk about basket build from the extra SKUs.
Retail $
Step 3: Reality check from public data
- Ham freezer stocks +28% YoY as of Sep 30 (NASS Cold Storage, released Oct 23; next Nov 24).
- USDA pork carcass composite $70.73, −28.5% YoY (LM_PK602) — wholesale is soft; execution is the edge.
- Thanksgiving Thu Nov 26.
Make it yours: pick the whole BI program now, post the cut wall, and run a knife training hour this week. Then check delivered pork on the → Pork board and → Request a pallet.
Sources: hypothetical worked example in data/meat_math.py; NASS Cold Storage (Oct 23); USDA AMS LM_PK602. Values are rounded.
6. Next Week
Next Monday's Meat Math: the Thanksgiving-week order. How many pounds to bring in for the busiest week — last year's movement, ad lift, and shrink — so you don't run out Tuesday or sit on product Friday (hypothetical).
Also on the radar: Nogales (Nov 30), WASDE (Tue Nov 10), Cold Storage (Tue Nov 24), ERS Outlook (Tue Nov 17), turkey HPAI watch, and final ham + turkey commitments before Thu Nov 26.
See the live market at usameats.com: Deals · Poultry · Pork · Trim & Grind · Seafood · Mexican meats · USDA charts · Landed-cost calculator · Holiday calendar · USA Meats Intelligence · Supermarket Specials News
Ready to buy? → Request a pallet
USA Meats Intelligence uses public data only. USDA values are wholesale FOB-plant market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Supermarket ad data is anonymized and aggregated.
Price a load from the live boards
Beef offers are on Today’s deals. Pork, chicken and seafood prices are on the live boards. This page does not set a price.