Monday Morning USA Meats Intelligence Report: Issue #4

Issue #4 · Monday, November 2, 2026 · Market week of Oct 26–30

Good morning. One read on beef, pork, chicken and seafood, what the supermarket ads ran, what to book before the holidays, and the holiday-case meat math we promised. November merchandising starts now.

The 30-second version

• Beef: Choice averaged $368.52/cwt (−$2.03 on the week, −$10.54 / −2.8% on the year). Friday closed at $364.66, the low of the week. The Choice/Select spread narrowed again to $13.47. Brisket and flank led the primals lower; the rib edged up again.
• Pork: the USDA weekly composite carcass cutout for the completed week is $72.03/cwt, down $4.32 (−5.7%) on the week and $28.68 (−28.5%) on the year — a fourth straight weekly decline.
• Chicken: boneless breast eased another 1.2¢ to about 112¢/lb. Boneless thighs fell 4.3¢, so the thigh-over-breast gap narrowed to about 59¢/lb. Wings slipped 3.4¢. Leg quarters held near 54¢.
• Turkey: frozen hens firmed 7¢ to a 187¢ weighted average and frozen toms rose 4¢, as bird flu hit commercial turkey flocks in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
• Seafood: the raw-shrimp ad median rose to $6.69/lb across 12 Hispanic/independent banners (from $6.28 on 8). Still no free weekly wholesale shrimp benchmark.
• Ads: 23 banners, 566 per-lb prices. Deli ham ran at 18 of 23 banners. Pork ribs jumped to 15 banners, chicken fajita meat went from 4 banners to 10, and whole-chicken and bone-in-thigh medians fell.
• Institutional: USDA reopened the Columbus, N.M. port to Mexican cattle on Oct 26 (Nogales is next, scheduled Nov 30). New World screwworm was confirmed in a dog in Arizona on Oct 28. Ham stocks in freezers were +28% on the year at the end of September.
• Meat Math: a hypothetical four-item holiday case — turkey, ham, rib roast, tamale pork — needs about a 26% blended margin. Put turkey on a 99¢ loss-leader ad and the other three items must carry about 38%, which means pricing them roughly 17% higher.

1. Last Week's Market

All USDA wholesale values are FOB plant, in $ per hundredweight (cwt = 100 lb) unless noted. Divide by 100 for $/lb: $368.52/cwt = $3.69/lb. These are USDA market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Live boards: usameats.com.

Beef: Choice drifts lower, the spread narrows again, the rib holds

Takeaway: Choice gave back about 2¢/lb on the week and is now almost 3% below a year ago. Select slipped less, so the Choice/Select spread narrowed from $14.57 to $13.47. Brisket (−$8.18) and flank (−$4.29) were the softest primals; the rib was the only primal that rose (+$1.14). Loads picked up a little on the week but stayed about 12% below last year. Beef offers are on Today’s deals.

Daily Choice / Select (closes): Mon $369.44 / $357.56 · Tue $372.22 / $358.85 · Wed $369.00 / $355.25 · Thu $367.28 / $351.63 · Fri $364.66 / $351.98 (Friday's Choice close was the low of the week).

Choice primals (weekly average):

Movers: Choice subprimals, weekly volume-weighted average (items with ≥150,000 lb traded in both weeks):

Grinds and trim (weekly wtd avg): 81% ground beef $324.16 (−$12.89 WoW, −8.6% YoY) · 73% $257.57 (+$17.52 WoW, −22.7% YoY) · 85% $408.43 (−$7.35) · 93% $508.26 (−$1.94) · ground chuck $377.74 (+2.1% YoY) · fresh 50% lean trim $83.66 (−$5.78 WoW, −47.9% YoY).

The trend under the trend: fat is cheaper than ever this year. Fresh 50s are now nearly half of last year's price, while the rib and chuck roll stay well above 2025. The holiday case leans on the expensive end (rib roast) and the cheap end (ground, stew, tamale pork) at the same time — that's this week's Meat Math (Section 5).

Cattle side (USDA 5-Area Weekly, LM_CT150, week ending Sun 10/25, corrected 10/27): negotiated live steers averaged $227.08/cwt at 1,592 lb (+$2.89 WoW, −$10.81 YoY), and dressed steers $360.79/cwt at 1,017 lb. Caution: USDA corrected this report for a packer submission issue, and it shows only 19,930 head confirmed (63,231 the week before; 62,863 a year ago). Treat the week's cattle averages as a thin sample.

Pork: completed-week carcass cutout

Takeaway: The USDA weekly composite carcass cutout for the completed week is $72.03/cwt, down $4.32 (−5.7%) on the week and $28.68 (−28.5%) on the year. That's the fourth straight weekly decline. Holiday ham and tamale-season pork programs are in Section 3 and Section 5.

Weekly figures only, by design. WoW is vs. the completed week ending 10/23/2026. YoY is vs. the completed week ending 10/31/2025.

Cold Storage cross-check (Section 4): ham stocks in freezers were up 28% from a year ago at the end of September, and total frozen pork was up 9%. A softer completed-week cutout plus heavy ham inventories usually gives patient holiday ham buyers room.

Chicken: breast and thighs both ease, the gap narrows

Takeaway: Boneless breast slipped another 1.2¢ and boneless thighs fell 4.3¢, so the thigh-over-breast gap narrowed to about 59¢/lb (from 62¢). Wings fell 3.4¢. Tenders rose almost 2¢. Leg quarters ticked up to about 54¢ and drumsticks eased to about 56¢.

Turkey check (AMS 3647): frozen hens (8–16 lb) traded 177–197¢ (wtd avg 187.00¢, up 7.10¢) and frozen toms (16–24 lb) 180–197¢ (wtd avg 188.50¢, up 3.96¢). Fresh boneless/skinless tom breasts rose 4.96¢ to 289.60¢ on 200k lb. USDA printed no fresh whole-hen line this week. With bird flu in commercial turkey flocks (Section 4) and Thanksgiving on Thu Nov 26, frozen birds are firming — finalize counts now.

Seafood: shrimp ads move up, wholesale still opaque

Takeaway: At Hispanic/independent Midwest banners, the raw-shrimp ad median rose to $6.69/lb on 12 banners (from $6.28 on 8). Peeled/EZ-peel held near $6.99, while head-on shrimp dropped to a $4.49 median. Tilapia fillets fell to $3.98 and whole tilapia ran a $2.72 median. At mainstream grocers the raw-shrimp median went the other way, down to $5.99.

Data gap, said plainly: there's still no free, public weekly U.S. wholesale shrimp price benchmark. We report retail ads instead, and the live Seafood board shows what's available now.

2. Supermarket Ads Recap (anonymized)

Ad week Wed Oct 28 – Tue Nov 3 (2026-W44). Advertised retail prices, $/lb only. No store, chain or brand names. An item is reported only if at least 3 banners ran it and no single banner supplies more than half its prices. "Cheapest tier" is the 25th-percentile ad price: a quarter of ads were at or below it. Full dataset: Supermarket Specials News.

Hispanic and independent supermarkets (Midwest): 23 banners, 566 per-lb ad prices (vs. 474 across 19 banners the prior week, on the same basis), and 53 items cleared the reporting bar.

What everyone ran (most banners):

1. Deli/cooked ham: 18 of 23 banners (still #1; up from 14)
2. Pork ribs: 15 banners (up from 10)
3. Pork chops: 13
4. Deli turkey breast and raw shrimp: 12 each
5. Boneless chicken breast, chicken fajita/taco meat and beef taco meat: 10 each

Moves worth noticing

• Cheaper: whole chicken ($1.94 → $1.54), bone-in thighs ($1.39 → $1.09), pork steak ($2.89 → $2.24), chuck roast ($6.99 → $5.99), bone-in shank ($5.49 → $4.99), head-on shrimp ($5.49 → $4.49), tilapia fillets ($4.49 → $3.98).
• Pricier: chicken tenders ($2.99 → $4.99), boneless pork loin ($2.29 → $2.99), ribeye ($6.99 → $8.73), deli turkey breast ($5.99 → $6.99), pork chops ($2.13 → $2.48).
• More banners: chicken fajita meat (4 → 10), boneless thighs (3 → 8), pork ribs (10 → 15), bone-in shank (4 → 9), deli ham (14 → 18).
• Fewer banners: pork butt (8 → 3), wings (12 → 9), skirt (7 → 5), chuck roast (6 → 4). New on the list this week: pork spine (7 banners, $1.99 median) and al pastor pork (5 banners, $2.99).

Mainstream grocers (Midwest): 12 grocery companies, 145 per-lb prices (up from 127), 17 items reported. Drumsticks $1.29 median (down from $1.77), boneless breast $1.99, pork chops $3.69 (down from $3.88), pork ribs $3.44 (up from $3.24), chuck roast/steak $7.99 (up from $6.99), ground beef $4.49 (down from $5.99), NY strip $14.99 (up from $10.99), deli ham $6.99, raw shrimp $5.99 (down from $6.99). The strip gap widened: mainstream chains raised their strip median by $4 in a week when USDA strip loins fell.

Wholesale-to-ad check (public numbers only): USDA boneless breast was about $1.12/lb FOB and the Hispanic/independent ad median was $2.09. USDA drumsticks were about $0.56/lb FOB against a $0.99 ad median. USDA boneless thighs were about $1.70/lb FOB against a $2.99 ad median.

3. Buying Opportunities: what's soft now and what to book ahead

This is market context, not a quote. For current delivered pricing, check the live boards and Request a pallet.

Soft now: worth featuring

• Brisket, flank and round. Brisket fell for a second week (−12.5% YoY primal), flank steak dropped $24.98 (−21.4% YoY), and knuckle and outside round both eased. Good timing for stew, milanesa, carne asada and roast features. → Today’s deals
• 73% ground and fat trim. 73% is still down 23% YoY and fresh 50s are down almost 48% YoY. Mainstream ground-beef ads dropped to a $4.49 median. → Trim & Grind
• Chicken breast and drumsticks. Breast eased again to about $1.12/lb FOB; drumsticks are about 56¢ FOB and still run a 99¢ ad median. → Poultry board · Leg quarters
• Holiday hams. Deli ham ran at 18 of 23 Hispanic/independent banners, and ham stocks in freezers are up 28% on the year. Thanksgiving is Thu Nov 26. → Pork board
• Tamale-season pork. Pork spine and al pastor joined the ad list this week, and the pork butt cheapest tier sits at $1.49. Tamale season runs straight into December. → Fresh pork
• Tenderloin. It jumped $44 this week but is still about 17% below last year — a holiday-party value cut if you book before it climbs further.

Book ahead: the market is firm or the calendar is tight

• Rib (prime rib, ribeye). The rib primal is +7.2% YoY, export rib (109E) is +10.1% and lip-on ribeye +8.7%. Retail ribeye ads already jumped to an $8.73 median. Lock in holiday rib roast quantities.
• Chuck roll and short ribs. Chuck roll is still +22% YoY; short ribs are +15% YoY. Price chuck ads with the yield math from Issue #3.
• Turkey. Frozen hens rose 7¢ and toms 4¢ this week while bird flu hit turkey flocks in three states. About 3½ weeks to Thanksgiving. Finalize counts now.
• Boneless thighs. The gap over breast narrowed to about 59¢, but thighs are still the dear dark-meat item. Book needs early or plan a breast swap.
• Lent 2027 seafood. Ash Wednesday is Feb 10, 2027. Shrimp ads are moving and the wholesale market is still opaque. → Seafood board · 21/25 shrimp
• Holiday calendar: every key buying date in one place → Holiday buying calendar

Do the delivered math before you commit: a cheap FOB price isn't cheap once freight is added. Run it through the → Landed-cost calculator, then → Request a pallet.

4. Industry & Institutional News

Cattle and the border

• USDA APHIS reopened the Columbus, New Mexico port of entry to cattle imports from Mexico on Oct 26. If conditions hold, Nogales, Arizona is next, scheduled for Nov 30 (USDA APHIS).
• USDA confirmed New World screwworm in Arizona on Oct 28, in a dog in Cochise County. Officials set a 20-km infested zone, increased trapping and are releasing sterile flies (USDA APHIS; Arizona officials).

Bird flu in turkey flocks

• H5N1 bird flu was confirmed Oct 28 in a commercial turkey flock of about 44,400 birds in Sac County, Iowa — Iowa's first commercial-flock case since December 2025. The governor issued a disaster proclamation (Iowa Governor's office; Iowa Dept. of Agriculture).
• APHIS also confirmed commercial turkey flocks in Roseau County, Minnesota (57,500 birds) and Barron County, Wisconsin (13,500 breeder hens) on Oct 22 (USDA APHIS via WATTPoultry). Turkey supply is the watch item into Thanksgiving.

Plant capacity watch

• Tyson's Joslin, Illinois beef plant (about 3,000 head a day) closed after the August announcement, and the State of Illinois is offering Invest in Illinois Fund support to find a buyer. Tyson's Eagle Mountain, Utah case-ready plant is also closing (Tyson Foods; MEAT+POULTRY).
• JBS kept its Souderton, Pennsylvania plant open as a smaller value-added/case-ready operation instead of closing it (JBS; Philadelphia Inquirer).
• Fewer cattle and less slaughter capacity in the Midwest support the high prices on the rib and chuck.

Cold Storage (NASS, stocks as of Sept 30; released Oct 23)

• Ham stocks in freezers: 160.7 million lb, +28% from a year ago and about flat from August. Total frozen pork +9% YoY; turkey −5% YoY.

Outlook reminders

• WASDE: Tue Nov 10. ERS Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook: Tue Nov 17.

Recalls and alerts

• FSIS recall 027-2026 (Oct 24, health risk: high): Imperio Distribution LLC, about 946 lb of 2-oz Imperio beef jerky (carne seca: Fuego, Original, Limón) produced without federal inspection and carrying an unauthorized USDA mark ("EST. 1885"). Sold at retail in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin. Check your shelves (USDA FSIS).

5. Meat Math: Merchandising the Holiday Case

Every Monday, one number that helps you buy smarter. In Issue #3 we promised November's feature: the holiday case — ham, turkey, rib roast and tamale pork — priced with the department-margin math from Issue #2 and the cutting-yield math from Issue #3. Here it is.

All purchase prices, pounds, yields, shrink and margins below are a hypothetical example for teaching. They are not USA Meats prices and not any real store's results.

Step 1: Plan the case with real yields and shrink

A hypothetical department plans four holiday items. For each one: saleable lb = lb in × cutting yield × (1 − shrink). True cost per saleable lb = total cost ÷ saleable lb. Required retail = true cost ÷ (1 − target margin).

Total cost: $9,655.00. Retail needed: $12,967.85. Blended margin: 25.55%.

Step 2: The 99¢ turkey ad

Now the ad goes out with turkey at $0.99/lb (hypothetical). The turkey brings in 1,188 lb × $0.99 = $1,176.12 against $2,340 of cost: a loss of −$1,163.88 (a −99% margin on turkey).

The department still needs the same total. The other three items must now bring in $11,791.73 instead of $10,042.85. Their margin has to rise from about 27% to 37.96%, which means pricing them about 17.4% higher:

The lesson: a loss-leader isn't free. Decide what carries it before the ad prints — and check that those prices still look right next to the ads around you.

Step 3: Rib roast yield sensitivity

The rib roast is the most expensive pound in the case, so yield matters most there. At an 88% cutting yield the hypothetical rib needs $22.03/lb. If trimming is heavier and yield drops to 84%, it needs $23.08/lb — $1.05/lb more for the same margin. Weigh the first rib in and out (the Issue #3 cutting test) before you price the rest.

Step 4: Tamale pork — bone-in or boneless?

At a hypothetical $1.60/lb with an 82% boneless yield, bone-in butt costs about $1.95 per boneless pound before shrink ($1.60 ÷ 0.82). So a boneless butt priced under about $1.95/lb is the better buy on meat alone; above that, bone-in wins if you have the labor to bone it.

Reality check: what public data says

• USDA frozen turkey hens averaged 187¢/lb FOB this week (177–197¢) (AMS 3647) — a public plant price, not your delivered cost. A 99¢ turkey ad sells well below that.
• USDA export rib (109E) averaged about $13.87/lb FOB, +10.1% YoY (LM_XB403). Ribeye ads already rose to an $8.73 median at Hispanic/independent banners (4 banners).
• Deli ham ran at 18 of 23 banners with a $4.99 median; ham stocks in freezers are +28% YoY (NASS Cold Storage).
• The pork butt ad median was $2.29 (3 banners), with a $1.49 cheapest tier (Supermarket Specials News 2026-W44).

Make it yours: write your own four lines — lb in, cost, yield, shrink, target — before the holiday ad prints. Then check where the wholesale market is on the → USDA charts and what actually lands at your door with the → Landed-cost calculator.

Sources: hypothetical worked example in data/meat_math.py; USDA AMS 3647 (turkey); USDA AMS LM_XB403 (109E); NASS Cold Storage (Oct 23); USA Meats Supermarket Specials News 2026-W44. Values are rounded.

6. Next Week

Next Monday's Meat Math: the Thanksgiving-week order. How many pounds to bring in for the busiest week of the year — using last year's movement, the ad lift, and shrink — so you don't run out on Tuesday or sit on product Friday (hypothetical worked example).

Also on the radar: Nogales cattle port (scheduled Nov 30), WASDE (Tue Nov 10), ERS Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook (Tue Nov 17), bird flu in turkey flocks, and the last turkey and ham commitments before Thanksgiving (Thu Nov 26).

See the live market at usameats.com: Deals · Poultry · Pork · Trim & Grind · Seafood · Mexican meats · USDA charts · Landed-cost calculator · Holiday calendar · USA Meats Intelligence · Supermarket Specials News

Ready to buy? → Request a pallet

USA Meats Intelligence uses public data only. USDA values are wholesale FOB-plant market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Supermarket ad data is anonymized and aggregated.

Price a load from the live boards

Beef offers are on Today’s deals. Pork, chicken and seafood prices are on the live boards. This page does not set a price.