Monday Morning USA Meats Intelligence Report: Issue #3

Issue #3 · Monday, October 26, 2026 · Market week of Oct 19–23

Good morning. One read on beef, pork, chicken and seafood, what the supermarket ads ran, what to book before the holidays, and the cutting-yield meat math we promised last week. November merchandising starts next issue.

The 30-second version

• Beef: Choice averaged $370.55/cwt (−$4.15 on the week, −$1.58 / −0.4% on the year). Friday closed at $365.79, the low of the week. The Choice/Select spread narrowed to $14.57. Brisket led the primals lower; the rib kept climbing.
• Pork: the USDA weekly composite carcass cutout is $76.35/cwt, down $3.89 (−4.8%) on the week and $24.62 (−24.4%) on the year — a third straight weekly decline.
• Chicken: boneless breast dropped almost 4¢ to 113¢/lb. Boneless thighs edged up. The thigh-over-breast gap is now about 62¢/lb. Leg quarters held near 53¢.
• Seafood: shrimp ad medians were flat at $6.28/lb at Hispanic/independent banners. Still no free weekly wholesale shrimp benchmark.
• Ads: 20 banners, 488 per-lb prices. Chicken wings jumped to 12 banners. Deli ham is still the most-advertised item (15 banners) but the median rose a dollar to $4.99. Beef stew meat went from 3 banners to 9.
• Institutional: Cattle on Feed (Oct 1) was 11.4 million head, slightly below a year ago; September placements were the lowest for that month since 1996. Cold Storage: frozen turkey −9% month-over-month heading into Thanksgiving; frozen pork +9% year-over-year.
• Meat Math: one 42-lb box of chuck rolls yields 40.5 lb of saleable meat. Ignoring the 1.5 lb of cutting loss understates your true cost by about 20¢/lb — and that changes what every steak and roast has to sell for.

1. Last Week's Market

All USDA wholesale values are FOB plant, in $ per hundredweight (cwt = 100 lb) unless noted. Divide by 100 for $/lb: $370.55/cwt = $3.71/lb. These are USDA market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Live boards: usameats.com.

Beef: Choice drifts lower, the spread narrows, the rib holds

Takeaway: Choice gave back about 4¢/lb on the week and is now roughly flat versus a year ago. Select actually edged higher, so the Choice/Select spread compressed from $20.31 to $14.57. Brisket was the softest primal (−$13.43). The rib kept climbing into holiday season. Volume stayed light versus last year. Beef offers are on Today’s deals.

Daily Choice / Select (closes): Mon $371.58 / $359.91 · Tue $373.30 / $361.54 · Wed $372.59 / $355.34 · Thu $369.47 / $350.41 · Fri $365.79 / $352.69 (Friday's Choice close was the low of the week).

Choice primals (weekly average):

Movers: Choice subprimals, weekly volume-weighted average (items with ≥150,000 lb traded in both weeks):

Grinds and trim (weekly wtd avg): 81% ground beef $337.05 (−$4.49 WoW, −2.1% YoY) · 73% $240.05 (−$19.62, −22.2% YoY) · 85% $415.78 (+$10.46) · ground chuck $380.75 (+8.4% YoY) · fresh 50% lean trim $89.44 (+$0.38 WoW, −39.5% YoY).

The trend under the trend: fat is still cheap. Fresh 50s are nearly 40% below last year and 73% ground beef is more than a fifth cheaper, while chuck roll remains about a quarter above a year ago. That is the backdrop for this week's Meat Math on cutting a chuck-roll box (Section 5).

Cattle side (USDA 5-Area Weekly, LM_CT150, week ending Sun 10/18): negotiated live steers averaged $224.19/cwt at 1,603 lb (+$4.05 WoW, −$15.63 YoY), and dressed steers $352.52/cwt at 1,028 lb, on 63,231 head confirmed (47,339 the week before; 70,518 a year ago). See Cattle on Feed in Section 4.

Pork: completed-week carcass cutout

Takeaway: The USDA weekly composite carcass cutout for the completed week is $76.35/cwt, down $3.89 (−4.8%) on the week and $24.62 (−24.4%) on the year. That's the third straight weekly decline. Holiday ham and tamale-season pork programs are in Section 3.

Weekly figures only, by design. WoW is vs. the completed week ending 10/16/2026. YoY is vs. the completed week ending 10/24/2025.

Cold Storage cross-check (Section 4): frozen pork stocks were up 9% from a year ago at the end of September, even as the cutout keeps sliding. More pork in freezers and a softer cutout usually means patient holiday ham and butt programs have room — until retail ads tighten the calendar.

Chicken: breast keeps easing, thighs stay firm

Takeaway: Boneless breast fell almost 4¢ and boneless thighs ticked higher. The thigh-over-breast gap is now about 62¢/lb, up from 56¢ last week. If a recipe or a case can use breast instead of thigh, that's money. Leg quarters held near 53¢. Drumsticks eased a half-cent on still-heavy volume.

Turkey check (AMS 3647): fresh whole hens (8–16 lb) traded this week at a weighted average of 181.78¢/lb (179–185). Frozen hens were 176–184¢ (wtd avg 179.90) and frozen toms (16–24 lb) 180–190¢ (wtd avg 184.54). Fresh boneless/skinless tom breasts fell 20¢ to 284.64¢ on 440k lb. Cold Storage says whole-turkey freezer stocks are already 11% below a year ago (Section 4) — finalize Thanksgiving counts now.

Seafood: ads steady, wholesale still opaque

Takeaway: At Hispanic/independent Midwest banners, the raw-shrimp ad median held at $6.28/lb (8 banners, down from 10). Peeled/EZ-peel raw shrimp edged up to a $6.98 median. Tilapia fillets stayed near $3.99. Last week's import story still stands: Ecuador led U.S. shrimp imports through August. No new free weekly wholesale shrimp benchmark has appeared.

Data gap, said plainly: there's still no free, public weekly U.S. wholesale shrimp price benchmark. We report import volumes and retail ads instead, and the live Seafood board shows what's available now.

2. Supermarket Ads Recap (anonymized)

Ad week Wed Oct 21 – Tue Oct 27 (2026-W43). Advertised retail prices, $/lb only. No store, chain or brand names. An item is reported only if at least 3 banners ran it and no single banner supplies more than half its prices. "Cheapest tier" is the 25th-percentile ad price: a quarter of ads were at or below it. Full dataset: Supermarket Specials News.

Hispanic and independent supermarkets (Midwest): 20 banners, 488 per-lb ad prices (vs. 512 across 20 banners the prior week, on the same basis), and 54 items cleared the reporting bar.

What everyone ran (most banners):

1. Deli/cooked ham: 15 of 20 banners (still #1; median up a dollar)
2. Chicken wings: 12 banners (up from 7)
3. Pork chops and pork ribs: 11 each
4. Deli turkey breast, beef stew meat: 9 each
5. Pork butt, pork stew meat, beef taco meat, raw shrimp, tilapia: 8 each

Moves worth noticing

• Cheaper: ribeye ($8.49 → $6.99), boneless pork loin ($2.99 → $2.29), deli turkey breast ($6.99 → $5.99), beef short ribs ($7.99 → $6.99), beef fajitas ($7.99 → $6.99), bone-in beef shank ($5.49 → $4.99).
• Pricier: deli ham ($3.99 → $4.99), bone-in split breast ($1.53 → $1.95), chicken fajita meat ($3.73 → $4.24), ground beef ($4.99 → $5.24).
• More banners featuring: chicken wings (7 → 12), beef stew meat (3 → 9), beef taco meat (4 → 8), drumsticks (5 → 7), skirt steak (5 → 7).
• Fewer banners featuring: deli ham (17 → 15), pork spareribs (10 → 7), bone-in split breast (8 → 5), bottom round (7 → 3), pork al pastor (7 → 3).

Mainstream grocers (Midwest): 11 grocery companies, 127 per-lb prices (down from 134), 13 items reported. Drumsticks $1.77 median (down from $1.99; low $1.09), pork ribs $3.24 (up from $2.89), chuck roast/steak $6.99, NY strip $10.99 (down from $12.99), deli ham $6.99, ground beef $5.99, raw shrimp $6.99, peeled shrimp $6.99 (down from $8.99). Same gap as last week: the strip median at mainstream chains is still well above the Hispanic/independent median.

Wholesale-to-ad check (public numbers only): USDA bulk leg quarters were 52.9¢/lb FOB and the ad median was 99¢. USDA boneless breast was about $1.13/lb FOB and the Hispanic/independent ad median was $1.99. Wings are carrying a lot of the traffic this week (12 banners).

3. Buying Opportunities: what's soft now and what to book ahead

This is market context, not a quote. For current delivered pricing, check the live boards and Request a pallet.

Soft now: worth featuring

• Brisket and round. Brisket fell $13.43 on the week (−8.7% YoY). Inside round and denuded top round both dropped hard and sit 14–15% below last year. Good timing for stew, milanesa, carne picada and roast features — retailers already jumped: beef stew ads went from 3 banners to 9. → Today’s deals
• 73% ground and fat trim. 73% is down 22% YoY and fresh 50s are down nearly 40% YoY. → Trim & Grind
• Chicken breast. Down almost 4¢ this week to about $1.13/lb FOB while thighs stay firm. Use breast where the case allows. → Poultry board
• Chicken wings and dark meat. Wings jumped to 12 banners; leg quarters and drumsticks still print near 99¢. → Leg quarters
• Holiday hams. Deli ham is still on 15 of 20 Hispanic/independent banners. Thanksgiving is Thu Nov 26. → Pork board
• Tamale-season pork. Pork butt ads still run near a $1.99 median with a $1.49 cheapest tier. Día de Muertos is this week (Nov 1–2). → Fresh pork
• Ribeye at retail. The ribeye ad median fell from $8.49 to $6.99 even as the USDA rib primal keeps climbing — a window for a family-pack feature before holiday rib firmed further.

Book ahead: the market is firm or the calendar is tight

• Rib (prime rib, ribeye). The rib primal is +9.3% YoY and boneless heavy ribeyes are +12.5% YoY. Holiday rib roasts are where waiting usually costs money. Lock in quantities.
• Chuck roll. Still about +25% YoY even after a soft week on the chuck primal. If chuck items (espaldilla, diezmillo, chuck roast) carry your ad, know your cutting yield (Section 5) before you print the price.
• Tenderloin. Heavy tenderloins are about 15% below last year and slipped again this week. Relative bargain for holiday party programs.
• Boneless thighs. Still about 62¢ over breast. Book needs early or plan a breast swap.
• Turkey. Thanksgiving is about 4½ weeks out. Fresh hens traded near 182¢, frozen hens near 180¢, and Cold Storage shows whole-turkey stocks already light vs. a year ago. Finalize counts now.
• Lent 2027 seafood. Ash Wednesday is Feb 10, 2027. Shrimp ads are steady and the wholesale market is still opaque — usually when Lent programs get booked. → Seafood board · 21/25 shrimp
• Holiday calendar: every key buying date in one place → Holiday buying calendar

Do the delivered math before you commit: a cheap FOB price isn't cheap once freight is added. Run it through the → Landed-cost calculator, then → Request a pallet.

4. Industry & Institutional News

Cattle on Feed (NASS, released Fri Oct 23)

• On feed Oct 1: 11.4 million head in 1,000+ capacity feedlots — slightly below Oct 1, 2025.
• September placements: 1.78 million head, 12% below 2025, and the lowest for September since the series began in 1996.
• September marketings: 1.52 million head, 7% below 2025, also the lowest for September since 1996.
• Steers and steer calves were 7.07 million (up slightly YoY, 62% of the inventory); heifers and heifer calves 4.30 million (−1% YoY).
• Read for buyers: tighter placements support the cattle market into winter, even with Choice boxed beef drifting this week.

Cold Storage (NASS, released Fri Oct 23; stocks as of Sept 30)

• Total red meat in freezers: −1% from August, +3% from a year ago.
• Beef: −1% month-over-month, −1% year-over-year.
• Pork: −1% month-over-month, +9% year-over-year. Pork bellies −12% from August, +7% from a year ago.
• Frozen poultry: −2% from August, −5% from a year ago. Chicken −5% YoY (but +2% from August). Turkey −9% from August and −5% from a year ago — the holiday turkey number that matters.
• Read for buyers: more pork in freezers fits a soft cutout; lighter turkey stocks argue against waiting on Thanksgiving birds.

Cattle and the border

• New World screwworm remains a watch item near the next expected New Mexico crossing after last week's Grant County cases. No official Columbus, NM reopening date has been announced (USDA APHIS; New Mexico Livestock Board).

Outlook reminders

• ERS's October Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-388, Oct 16) still has Q4 fed steers at $225, Q4 hogs near $55/cwt, and chicken consumption per person up almost 4% this year. Next LDP is Tue Nov 17.

Recalls and alerts

• Still worth checking stockrooms: the Oct 16 Kayem Foods voluntary recall of fully cooked meat and poultry products stored/shipped June 7–Oct 14 after a warehouse cooling malfunction, and FSIS Class I recall 025-2026 (ineligible Colombian pork cracklings) (Kayem; USDA FSIS).

5. Meat Math: The Cutting Yield Test

Every Monday, one number that helps you buy smarter. Last week we promised the cutting yield test. Here it is — it wraps up October's cattle-and-yields month.

The box numbers below are a hypothetical example for teaching. They are not USA Meats prices and not any real store's results.

Step 1: Weigh it in, cut it, weigh every pile

Take one case — say two chuck rolls — and weigh it in. Cut it the way your department actually cuts it. Weigh every saleable pile and the fat/bone/drip that doesn't sell.

Yield % = lb out ÷ lb in. Here: 40.5 ÷ 42.0 = 96.4%. The 1.5 lb that disappeared still has to be paid for by the 40.5 lb that sells.

Step 2: True cost per saleable pound

Say the box was purchased at a hypothetical $5.50/lb (back-door example only — not a USA Meats price). Box cost = 42 × $5.50 = $231.

• Cost per saleable lb = $231 ÷ 40.5 = $5.70/lb
• That is 20¢/lb more than the $5.50 you thought you paid, because the cutting loss has to ride on the meat that rings.

If the department target on this box is 25%, the case needs to ring $308 of retail ($231 ÷ 0.75). That is an average of $7.60/lb across everything that sells.

Shortcut: true cost/lb = (purchase $/lb) ÷ yield %. Here: $5.50 ÷ 0.964 ≈ $5.71.

Step 3: What each cut must sell for

Allocate the $231 box cost by each pile's share of the out weight, then price each pile at its own target margin:

Required $/lb = (box cost × cut's share of out-lb) ÷ cut lb ÷ (1 − cut target margin).

Step 4: One ad cut changes the rest of the box

This week's Hispanic/independent ads put beef stew meat on 9 banners at a $6.28 median (Section 2). Say you feature stew from this box at a −5% margin (traffic): stew rings about $5.43/lb and loses roughly $2 on its share of the box. To still hit a 25% target on the whole case, the steaks, roast and grind have to earn about 30% margin on their sales — not the 18–32% you planned.

Same lesson as last week's department math, one level deeper: plan the yield, the ad cut and the target together, before the ad prints.

Reality check: what public data says

USDA's Choice chuck roll (116A) averaged about $5.84/lb FOB this week (+24.7% YoY) (LM_XB403). That is a public plant price, not your delivered cost. Hispanic/independent chuck-roast ads ran a $6.99 median (6 banners); beef stew ads ran $6.28 (9 banners). If your true cost after yield is near $5.70–$6.00/lb before labor and shrink, a $6.99 roast ad is tight — which is exactly why the weigh-in/weigh-out test matters.

Make it yours: weigh one real box this week. Write down the four piles. Then check where the wholesale market is on the → USDA charts and what actually lands at your door with the → Landed-cost calculator.

Sources: hypothetical worked example in data/meat_math.py; USDA AMS LM_XB403 chuck roll (116A); USA Meats Supermarket Specials News 2026-W43. Values are rounded.

6. Next Week

Coming in November: merchandising the holiday case. Ham, turkey, rib roast and tamale pork — priced with the department-margin math from Issue #2 and the cutting-yield math from today.

October's cattle-and-yields month is done. November is about building the case that pays for Thanksgiving through New Year's.

Also on the radar: Día de Muertos pork programs (Nov 1–2), the next ERS Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook (Tue Nov 17), and the last big turkey and ham commitments before Thanksgiving (Thu Nov 26).

See the live market at usameats.com: Deals · Poultry · Pork · Trim & Grind · Seafood · Mexican meats · USDA charts · Landed-cost calculator · Holiday calendar · USA Meats Intelligence · Supermarket Specials News

Ready to buy? → Request a pallet

USA Meats Intelligence uses public data only. USDA values are wholesale FOB-plant market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Supermarket ad data is anonymized and aggregated.

Price a load from the live boards

Beef offers are on Today’s deals. Pork, chicken and seafood prices are on the live boards. This page does not set a price.