Monday Morning USA Meats Intelligence Report: Issue #1

Good morning. Welcome to issue #1. Every Monday you get one read on last week's beef, pork, chicken and seafood markets, what the supermarket ads ran, what to book before the holidays, and one piece of meat math you can use on the floor. Coffee's ready. Here's the week.

The 30-second version

• Beef: a slow drift lower. Choice averaged $376.20/cwt (−$3.18 on the week, +$10.95 on the year). Round and brisket got cheaper. Rib and chuck held.
• Pork: the USDA weekly composite carcass cutout for the completed week is $82.34/cwt, down $3.72 (−4.3%) on the week and $22.51 (−21.5%) on the year.
• Chicken: steady. Boneless breast was flat, wings were up 2¢, and leg quarters stayed in the low 50s (cents/lb).
• Seafood: shrimp keeps arriving in record amounts and wholesale prices are soft. Shrimp ads dropped a full dollar at the median.
• Ads: 16 supermarket banners, 477 per-lb prices. Leg quarters and drumsticks ran at a 99¢ median.
• Meat Math: a 1,400 lb steer becomes about 573 lb of saleable beef. The math is below.

1. Last Week's Market

All USDA wholesale values are FOB plant, in $ per hundredweight (cwt = 100 lb) unless noted. Divide by 100 for $/lb: $376.20/cwt = $3.76/lb. These are USDA market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Live boards: usameats.com.

Beef: a soft week, and a cheaper back end

Takeaway: The Choice cutout lost about 3¢/lb on the week but is still about 11¢/lb above a year ago. Most of the softness came from the round and brisket. The rib kept climbing into holiday season. Heavy tenderloins dropped more than $1/lb. If you're planning holiday tenderloin or prime rib features, see Section 3. Beef offers are on Today’s deals.

Daily Choice / Select (closes): Mon $378.26 / $358.57 · Tue $378.93 / $356.34 · Wed $375.62 / $354.21 · Thu $374.85 / $351.73 · Fri $373.35 / $354.30 (Friday spread $19.05, the narrowest of the week).

Choice primals (weekly average):

Movers: Choice subprimals, weekly volume-weighted average (items with ≥150,000 lb traded in both weeks):

Grinds and trim (weekly wtd avg): 81% ground beef $342.48 (flat WoW, +5.0% YoY) · 73% $252.76 (−$1.81, −10.5% YoY) · 85% $414.14 (−$3.54) · fresh 50% lean trim $93.41 (+$4.49 WoW but −33% YoY).

The trend under the trend: fat is cheap and lean is not. Fresh 50s are about a third below last year, while 81% ground beef is up 5%. Blends with more fat are where the value is, and imported lean trim is getting a tariff break through November (see News).

Cattle side (USDA 5-Area Weekly, LM_CT150, week ending Sun 10/4): negotiated live steers averaged $219.80/cwt at 1,598 lb, and dressed steers $346.26/cwt at 1,027 lb, on 60,063 head confirmed. The heavier weights matter. More pounds per head is partly offsetting a herd that's at a multi-decade low.

Pork: completed-week carcass cutout

Takeaway: The USDA weekly composite carcass cutout for the completed week is $82.34/cwt, down $3.72 (−4.3%) on the week and $22.51 (−21.5%) on the year. Holiday ham programs are in Section 3.

Weekly figures only, by design. WoW is vs. the 5-day average ending 10/2/2026. YoY is vs. the 5-day average ending 10/10/2025.

Why it's happening: USDA's Economic Research Service says pork demand was "sluggish" in September. It also notes that hams and bellies together make up almost 41% of the wholesale cutout value, so when those two fall the whole cutout falls with them. ERS also says weaker 23–27 lb ham prices, a cut favored by Mexican buyers, have pushed more hams into exports to markets outside North America (ERS LDP-M-387, Sept 17).

Chicken: steady, with dark meat cheap and thighs pricey

Takeaway: Nothing much happened, and for a buyer that's good news. Boneless breast barely moved. Wings firmed 2¢. Leg quarters are still close to their floor. One thing worth knowing: boneless thigh meat costs about 49¢/lb more than boneless breast.

USDA's daily broiler commentary called the market steady, with well-balanced floor stocks and moderate export activity (AMS daily broiler reports, Oct 6–7).

Turkey check (AMS 3647): fresh whole hens (8–16 lb) averaged 181.67¢/lb (−3.73¢). Frozen toms (16–24 lb) averaged 184.48¢. ERS's September outlook has frozen hens averaging 170¢ in Q4, below the 182¢ Q3 average.

Seafood: the shrimp keeps coming

Takeaway: U.S. shrimp imports hit 175.7 million lb in August, including a record 97.3 million lb of peeled shrimp, the largest single month on record (Expana/SeafoodNews analysis of U.S. Census/NOAA trade data). Trade press describes U.S. wholesale shrimp pricing as soft under that supply (Undercurrent News, Oct 8). Retail ads showed it: the median raw shrimp ad fell from $6.99 to $5.99/lb this week (Section 2). One policy item to watch is the Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act (S. 5613), introduced Sept 30. It would phase duties on Ecuadorian shrimp up to 40% by Jan 1, 2029. It's in committee and hasn't been voted on.

Data gap, said plainly: there's no free, public weekly U.S. wholesale shrimp price benchmark. The main ones (Urner Barry/Expana, Undercurrent) are paid. We report import volumes and retail-ad prices instead, and our live Seafood board shows what's available now.

2. Supermarket Ads Recap (anonymized)

Ad week Wed Oct 7 – Tue Oct 13 (2026-W41). Advertised retail prices, $/lb only. No store, chain or brand names. An item is reported only if at least 3 banners ran it and no single banner supplies more than half its prices. "Cheapest tier" is the 25th-percentile ad price: a quarter of ads were at or below it. Full dataset: Supermarket Specials News.

Hispanic and independent supermarkets (Midwest): 16 banners, 477 per-lb ad prices (up from 377 across 17 banners the prior week), and 52 items cleared the reporting bar.

What everyone ran (most banners):

1. Deli/cooked ham: 13 of 16 banners. Holiday ham season has started at the deli.
2. Pork butt/shoulder: 10 banners, up from 7
3. Pork spine/espinazo: 10, up from 6
4. Chicken fajita/taco meat: 10
5. Drumsticks and tilapia fillets: 9 each

Moves worth noticing

• Cheaper: leg quarters ($1.28 → $0.99), 26–50 shrimp ($6.99 → $5.49), whole tilapia ($2.47 → $1.99), T-bone ($8.62 → $6.99).
• Pricier: whole chicken ($1.59 → $1.99), beef shank ($4.49 → $5.49), al pastor ($3.49 → $3.99).
• More banners featuring: turkey ham (3 → 8), deli turkey breast (4 → 8), espinazo (6 → 10), al pastor (4 → 8).
• Fewer banners featuring: pork spareribs (7 → 4), chuck roast/steak (7 → 4), beef stew (5 → 3).

Mainstream grocers (Midwest, first week tracked): 10 grocery companies, 112 per-lb prices, 11 items reported. Boneless breast $1.99 median (low $0.99), pork chops $2.49, ground beef $4.99, T-bone $9.49, NY strip $11.99. The same steak runs a lot higher at the mainstream chains than at the Hispanic/independent banners.

Wholesale-to-ad check (public numbers only): USDA bulk leg quarters were 53¢/lb FOB, and the ad median was 99¢. The pork butt ad median was $1.99. Both items are working as traffic drivers.

3. Buying Opportunities: what's soft now and what to book ahead

This is market context, not a quote. For current delivered pricing, check the live boards and Request a pallet.

Soft now: worth featuring

• Hams (holiday ham programs). Thanksgiving is Thu Nov 26. Christmas and New Year's are the main ham holidays. If you run bone-in or smoked ham programs, price them on the live pork board. → Pork board
• Picnics and butts (tamale season). Día de Muertos (Nov 1–2), Virgen de Guadalupe (Dec 12), posadas and Christmas tamales all run on pork shoulder. Espinazo featuring jumped from 6 to 10 banners this week, so the season is already starting. → Fresh pork
• Bellies. A fit for chicharrón, pork belly and bacon features.
• Beef round and brisket. The round primal fell $8.84 and brisket $9.61 on the week. Peeled knuckle (bola) is down 12% WoW and 22.5% YoY. Good for roast, milanesa, carne picada and stew features as the weather cools.
• Chicken dark meat. Leg quarters (53¢) and drumsticks (53¢, −2.39¢) are among the cheapest proteins anywhere. Retailers are already running them at a 99¢ ad median. → Poultry board · Leg quarters
• Fat trim and blends. Fresh 50s are down 33% YoY. → Trim & Grind

Book ahead: the market is firm or the calendar is tight

• Rib (prime rib, ribeye). The rib primal is +8.9% YoY and still climbing into December. Holiday rib roasts are one of the few beef items where waiting usually costs money. Lock in quantities early.
• Tenderloin. This week's $1.13/lb drop is a window. Middle meats usually firm into party season.
• Chuck. Chuck roll is up 29% YoY. If chuck-based items (espaldilla, diezmillo, chuck roast) carry your ad, look at round cuts as substitutes, or book early.
• Turkey. Fresh hens eased 3.73¢ this week. Thanksgiving is about 6½ weeks out, and most holiday birds are already committed. Finalize counts now.
• Lent 2027 seafood. Ash Wednesday is Feb 10, 2027. Imported frozen shrimp, tilapia and whitefish book weeks ahead of arrival, so plan Lent programs in December, not February. With record peeled-shrimp imports and soft pricing now, it's a good time to start the conversation. → Seafood board · 21/25 shrimp
• Holiday calendar: every key buying date in one place → Holiday buying calendar

Do the delivered math before you commit: a cheap FOB price isn't cheap if freight eats the margin. Run it through the → Landed-cost calculator, then → Request a pallet.

4. Industry & Institutional News

Plant closures and capacity

• Tyson Joslin, IL and Eagle Mountain, UT: pay continuation for roughly 3,200 workers at both closed beef sites runs through Oct 12 (today). Tyson cited the tight cattle supply and is shifting capacity to Nebraska, Kansas and Texas. It also says it will restart a second shift at Amarillo when cattle become available. Joslin was one of the larger plants serving the Midwest. (Yahoo Finance/KFSM; WSWS, Oct 5)
• JBS Souderton, PA: beef harvest ended Aug 14. The plant is being converted to value-added/case-ready production, keeping about 400 jobs, with $30M+ to be invested over the next decade. That leaves one fewer harvest floor in the Northeast and adds case-ready capacity. (JBS USA via MSP Magazine, Oct 4)
• Openings (poultry/pork): A poultry processor is investing $152M to expand further processing and packaging in Lebanon County, PA, with 382 new jobs (PA Governor's Office, Oct 1). A pork and chicken processor opened an integrated pork and chicken plant in Trois-Rivières, QC (The Pig Site, Sept).

Cattle, herd and screwworm

• Herd: U.S. cattle and calves totaled 86.2 million head on Jan 1, 2026 (−0.4%). Beef cows were 27.6 million (−1%) (USDA NASS, Jan 30). Tight supply is the main reason packers are closing plants.
• New World screwworm: USDA has reopened Douglas, AZ and Santa Teresa, NM to Mexican cattle under enhanced inspection. Columbus, NM is next once milestones are met (APHIS, updated Oct 9). USDA counts 52 U.S. cases since June 3, two of them active, and says the sterile-fly plant in Metapa, Mexico is producing about 50M flies a week (RFD-TV, Oct 9). Imports are still limited while the ports ramp up. Heavier backgrounded feeders cross first, and lighter cattle are expected in Nov–Dec (Texas Cattle Feeders Assn. via Oklahoma Farm Report, Oct 6; Meatingplace DLR, Oct 9).

Tariffs and imports

• Lean beef trim tariff break: an Aug 26 proclamation added 300,000 metric tons of in-quota access for fresh/frozen boneless beef trimmings from "other countries," administered in three 30-day tranches Sept 1 – Nov 30. It mostly benefits Brazil. ERS expects higher late-2026 imports but only a limited effect on cattle prices (ERS LDP-M-387). For grinders, that's more imported lean in the system through Thanksgiving.
• China–Brazil: China put a 55% safeguard tariff on Brazilian beef shipped over Brazil's 2026 quota (Reuters, Sept 30). Product that can't go to China has to find other buyers, and the U.S. is one of them.
• Argentina: the final 2026 tranche of Argentina's U.S. beef quota opened Oct 1 and runs through Dec 31 (CBP Quota Bulletin QB 26-224).
• Shrimp: S. 5613, the Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act, is in Senate Finance (Sen. Hyde-Smith release; Congress.gov).

Foodservice and institutional

• A large foodservice distributor and Restaurant Depot: the roughly $29.1B deal (167 cash-and-carry warehouses in 35 states) is still under FTC review six months after it was announced. Independent restaurant groups are lobbying against it, and the distributor closed a large bond offering Oct 6 to help fund it. Independents who use cash-and-carry to compare against broadline pricing should watch this one (Distribution Strategy Group, Oct 8).

Recalls and alerts

• FSIS public health alert (Oct 6): canned chicken Vienna-style sausages illegally imported from Jamaica (EST. NO G-01 inside the Jamaica mark). Distributed to retail in AL, FL, GA, MD and TX. Pull them from the shelf if you have them.
• Still worth checking (Class I, Sept 22): about 167,639 lb of raw pork, beef and goat products from Star Meat Delivery Inc. (Lucama, NC). They were produced without federal inspection and carry a false "EST. 1363" mark, and were distributed nationwide to retail and restaurants through a Georgia distributor. Check your boxes for EST. 1363. (USDA FSIS)

On the calendar: ERS's next Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook is Fri Oct 16. USDA's 5-Area weekly cattle report for the week ending 10/11 posts Monday.

5. Meat Math: From Fed Steer to Box

Every Monday, one number that helps you buy smarter. This week: why a $2.20/lb steer turns into $3.76/lb boxed beef, and why that still isn't what your steaks cost.

Step 1: Live weight → hot carcass weight (dressing percent)

Dressing percent = hot carcass weight ÷ live weight. Fed steers usually dress at 62–64%, and about 63% is the standard working number (SDSU Extension). The rest is hide, head, feet, blood and organs. Those are byproducts, which have value but aren't boxed beef.

The market agrees: dividing last week's 5-Area live steer price by the dressed price gives $219.80 ÷ $346.26 = 63.5%. That's the dressing percent implied by cattle prices (USDA LM_CT150, week ending 10/4).

Step 2: Carcass → cutout (what USDA's number actually is)

The boxed beef cutout is the value of 100 lb of carcass, not 100 lb of steak. USDA builds it by valuing every subprimal and the fat, bone and shrink that come off it, rolling those up into seven primals, and weighting each primal by its share of the carcass (USDA AMS, User's Guide to Boxed Beef Cutouts):

The rib is only 11% of the carcass, but per pound it's worth more than twice the chuck. The chuck and loin each contribute about a quarter of the total value.

Step 3: Carcass → saleable beef (cutting yield)

A typical Choice carcass (about ½ inch of fat, average muscling) yields about 65% of carcass weight as boneless, trimmed retail cuts plus lean trim. The rest is roughly 20% fat trim and 15% bone (SDSU Extension). Fatter or lighter-muscled carcasses can range from 55% to 75%.

The worked example: one 1,400 lb steer

What it means for a buyer:

• $3,318 ÷ 573 lb ≈ $5.79 of carcass value for each pound of saleable beef. That's a rough figure because the cutout already credits fat and bone at their low values. The point is that $3.76/lb carcass is not $3.76/lb meat. Every boneless pound carries the cost of the fat and bone that came off it.
• Each $1/cwt move in the Choice cutout = $8.82 per carcass, or about 1.5¢ per saleable pound. Last week's −$3.18 took about $28 off the value of this carcass.
• Gross spread: cutout value minus live cost ≈ $241/head in this example, before byproduct credit and before slaughter, fabrication, packaging and freight. That's the margin packers watch. Cattle prices are from the week ending 10/4 and cutout from 10/5–10/9, so treat it as illustrative.
• Middle meats are scarce: SDSU's example 750 lb carcass yields about 18 lb of strip steaks and about 9 lb of tenderloin steaks. That's why 189A trades above $16/lb.

Make it yours: the box price is only half the story. Freight, pallet count and destination change the per-pound cost you actually pay. Run it in the → USA Meats Landed-Cost Calculator and compare against the → USDA charts.

Sources: SDSU Extension, "How Much Meat Can You Expect from a Fed Steer?quot;; USDA AMS, "User's Guide to USDA's Boxed Beef Cutouts" (Jan 2026); USDA AMS LM_XB403 (10/5–10/9/2026); USDA AMS LM_CT150 (week ending 10/4/2026). Example values are rounded.

6. Next Week

Meat Math #2: weighted-average meat department margin. If your ground beef makes 18%, steaks make 32% and chicken makes 12%, your department isn't averaging 20%. Next Monday we'll show how to weight margin by sales mix, why one loss leader can sink a whole week, and how to set ad prices that still hit your department target.

Coming up in the monthly rotation: merchandising (building the holiday case) and cutting yield tests (how to test a box of chuck rolls and price every cut from it).

See the live market at usameats.com: Deals · Poultry · Pork · Trim & Grind · Seafood · Mexican meats · USDA charts · Landed-cost calculator · Holiday calendar · USA Meats Intelligence · Supermarket Specials News

Ready to buy? → Request a pallet

USA Meats Intelligence uses public data only. USDA values are wholesale FOB-plant market prices, not USA Meats sell prices. Supermarket ad data is anonymized and aggregated. Full source list: sources.md.

Price a load from the live boards

Beef offers are on Today’s deals. Pork, chicken and seafood prices are on the live boards. This page does not set a price.